Predictors of Bar Passage
Breaking Down Bar Passage: Examining the Predictive Utility of Academic Performance and Student Characteristics on Subscale Scores of the Uniform Bar Exam—A Follow-Up Study
Document Type
Law Review Article
Publication Date
4-2025
Keywords
incoming indicators, standardized test scores, undergraduate GPA, law school performance, law school GPA, law school curriculum
Abstract
Building on a prior study by Farley et al. (2019), this study examines the predictive utility of academic performance and student characteristics on the subcomponents of the Ohio Bar Exam—the Multistate Bar Exam (MBE), Written Essay, and Multistate Performance Test (MPT)—and situates findings within the context of the Uniform Bar Exam (UBE). Results support the notion that in-law school factors, such as cumulative GPA and upper-level bar coursework, are more predictive of first-time bar passage than pre-law school credentials or demographics alone, but statistical models struggled to identify clear predictive patterns between experiential coursework and MPT performance—highlighting the need for additional research on the MPT specifically. Overall, findings underscore the timeliness of the newly developed 2026 NextGen Bar Exam, while making a conceptual contribution to bar passage research and providing valuable insights for legal education, policy, and practice.
